Post by account_disabled on Mar 12, 2024 9:15:20 GMT
Bankinter has updated its real estate forecasts, in which it anticipates a high Euribor for at least three years and an adjustment in the housing market.
According to the strategy report for the third quarter of the year, the entity's analysts place the Euribor above 4% at the end of this year and believe that it will remain above 3% in the next two years. They also anticipate a moderate correction in housing prices and a drop in activity.
" Housing prices should enter an Cambodia Telegram Number Data adjustment phase, with a fall of 5% in two years . We foresee falls of -3% in 2023 and -2% in 2024, with three main triggers for said adjustment being: the higher cost of mortgage financing, the lower household savings rate; and the loss of attractiveness of investment in rental housing," the document explains. Slight increases would arrive in 2025 (1%, according to the projection). Regarding sales , the new calculations from the bank led by María Dolores Dancausa point to a drop of 13% this year and another additional 5% in 2024.
Spain will not be the only country that will experience an adjustment in residential property prices. Bankinter also expects a correction in other markets such as the US or Portugal.
In the case of the world's leading power, the report details that "the real estate market has experienced a golden moment, but we have reached a change of cycle." Thus, it foresees that "the trend will continue downward in the coming months and, we estimate that the real estate market could reach a fall of more than 5% by mid-year, due to the tightening of financing conditions and, consequently, the "less accessibility to housing. The cooling of the real estate market has negative implications on consumption and investment, and favors a more moderate tone on the part of the Federal Reserve (Fed)."
In the case of the Portuguese market, the adjustment will come later . For this year, the bank's analysts estimate an increase in housing prices of 1.6%, although they anticipate declines of 2% in both 2024 and 2025.
On the other hand, in other European countries prices will stagnate this year, such as Ireland. In this sense, the report argues that "housing prices tend to slow down due to the tightening of interest rates. Although there are factors that support them: Ireland has a structural supply deficit, which is not "will revert in the short term, and they have an aid scheme for the purchase of the first home. Consequently, we estimate a slowdown in prices, although without incurring negative rates (0.0% in 2023)." However, next year housing in the Celtic market could become more expensive by more than 2% and in 2025, almost 5%.
According to the strategy report for the third quarter of the year, the entity's analysts place the Euribor above 4% at the end of this year and believe that it will remain above 3% in the next two years. They also anticipate a moderate correction in housing prices and a drop in activity.
" Housing prices should enter an Cambodia Telegram Number Data adjustment phase, with a fall of 5% in two years . We foresee falls of -3% in 2023 and -2% in 2024, with three main triggers for said adjustment being: the higher cost of mortgage financing, the lower household savings rate; and the loss of attractiveness of investment in rental housing," the document explains. Slight increases would arrive in 2025 (1%, according to the projection). Regarding sales , the new calculations from the bank led by María Dolores Dancausa point to a drop of 13% this year and another additional 5% in 2024.
Spain will not be the only country that will experience an adjustment in residential property prices. Bankinter also expects a correction in other markets such as the US or Portugal.
In the case of the world's leading power, the report details that "the real estate market has experienced a golden moment, but we have reached a change of cycle." Thus, it foresees that "the trend will continue downward in the coming months and, we estimate that the real estate market could reach a fall of more than 5% by mid-year, due to the tightening of financing conditions and, consequently, the "less accessibility to housing. The cooling of the real estate market has negative implications on consumption and investment, and favors a more moderate tone on the part of the Federal Reserve (Fed)."
In the case of the Portuguese market, the adjustment will come later . For this year, the bank's analysts estimate an increase in housing prices of 1.6%, although they anticipate declines of 2% in both 2024 and 2025.
On the other hand, in other European countries prices will stagnate this year, such as Ireland. In this sense, the report argues that "housing prices tend to slow down due to the tightening of interest rates. Although there are factors that support them: Ireland has a structural supply deficit, which is not "will revert in the short term, and they have an aid scheme for the purchase of the first home. Consequently, we estimate a slowdown in prices, although without incurring negative rates (0.0% in 2023)." However, next year housing in the Celtic market could become more expensive by more than 2% and in 2025, almost 5%.