Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 9:01:06 GMT
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the global oil market, with North African suppliers stepping in to meet European demand and Moscow, hit by Western sanctions, moving its crude to Asia.
The current situation represents the biggest revolution on the supply side since the development of fracking in the US a decade ago and Russia will probably be able to circumvent the hypothetical ban on oil imports from the European Union as long as Asia and especially China continue to increase their crude oil purchases. Therefore, unless Western countries put pressure on Asian buyers, Russia could avoid losing its main customers.
The sanctions imposed by Ecuador Mobile Number List the EU, the US and their allies on imports of oil and other raw materials have led the Russian giant to distance itself from the West and reorient its exports in exchange for large discounts, with China and India as the main ones. beneficiaries.
Russian exports returned to pre-invasion levels in April, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), and oil prices have stabilized around $110 after hitting a 14-year high above 139 dollars a barrel last March.
On the other hand, the US, the EU and the United Kingdom have prohibited Russian-flagged or owned ships from calling at their ports, so exports to Asia from Russia are being made via transfer between ships on the high seas. , which also carries a climate risk. However, volumes transported by sea are only a part of Russia's total exports. Including supplies through pipelines, total crude oil exports rose to about 8 million barrels a day in April, returning to pre-invasion figures.
To make up for the loss of Russian oil, European refiners have turned to West African crude imports, which rose 17% in April compared to the 2018-2021 average. In turn, crude oil volumes from West Africa to India have almost halved.
This figure is below crude oil from North Africa, which has increased by 30% since last March.
Within this reorganization of European supply, the US has also increased its exports to Europe, around 15% since last March.
Over time, we will see whether Europe has been able to eliminate its dependence on Russian energy imports and, if so, at what cost. What is clear is that we are witnessing how the world evolves into a multilateral order divided into blocks.